After my little break it’s time to get back on to the analysis for Monday 27th April 2015, starting with the hashtag chart:
All the parties (bar the Greens) are represented on the chart today; looks like they are finally getting their acts together with Twitter, as the election draws into it’s final stages.
#WHATMATTERSTOME is a Twitter based survey by the Scotsman newspaper to sample the attitude of the nation with regard to what they feel is important to them right now.
The #SNP continue to do well, but the rise of #SNPOUT has been quite remarkable, in this chart ‘’#votesnp is “only” out performing #’snpout by 5:1. Given that more than half of the electorate claim to support the SNP, this rise (from 54:1) is significant.
A good spread of parties on the chart, the SNP still way out in the lead as the “Cybernats’” experience in the independence referendum is still telling. An example of that is the “group cheer” from the “CyberNats” for @AROBERTSONSNP, after his performance on the BBC Question Time; placing him at number 4 on today’s chart.
Again we see the trend of Labour being the most popular topic of conversation in every hour.
The zeitgeist is dominated by the TNS poll showing SNP with 54% of the vote in Scotland. Although this poll does hint at something interesting, something that won’t actually be resolved until the election itself.
In 1992 the Conservatives won the election against the polls. Later analysis concluded that this was due to it being “socially unacceptable” to be a Tory supporter, at that time; so when asked which party respondents were going to vote for, they either lied or said they were undecided.
Now, although the headline figure in the poll says 54% for the SNP, when you dig into the charts and data, you find two interesting things. One is that 29% of respondents said they were undecided. The second is that the question, about voting intentions, which garnered the 54% support for the SNP, wasn’t a straight question along the lines of who they’d vote for, in fact the question was:
“ The next General Election for the Westminster Parliament will be held in May 2015. Which party do you intend to vote for in that election? (Respondents initially stating undecided/refused then asked: Which party would you be most inclined to vote for in a General Election for the Westminster Parliament?)”
So when asked, a percentage of people stated that they were undecided or refused to answer and only when “pushed” did they give an answer, some for the SNP and some for other parties (we must assume). It is this “final answer” that was taken and the 54% figure obtained.
Now these interviews were conducted face to face and it is arguable that it is not “socially acceptable” to support another party in Scotland at this time. Therefore, there is a possibility that the “1992 phenomenon” is at work here. However, we will have to wait and see until the election to find out. It’s just one of the many interesting questions that will be resolved when votes are actually cast.
Right, after that slight diversion, lets look at what else was happening yesterday, and what the Twitterati had to say about it:
The Liberal Democrats say education funding will be a “red line” in any coalition negotiations, prompting “EDUCATION RED LINE” at number 467.
Labour says it would exempt first-time buyers from stamp duty on homes worth up to £300,000, this was not mentioned.
Nicola Sturgeon says Labour has been “bullied” in to ruling out a coalition with her SNP party, prompting “ED MILIBAND BULLIED” at 1,759.
A letter signed by 5,000 small businesses backs the Conservatives, getting “SMALL BUSINESS LETTER” to 248.
The Greens said they would take away the “right-to-buy”, prompting “END RIGHT BUY” 369.
Well that concludes this post, until next time, keep crunching those numbers!